Nick this chance, don't blow it.

If you refer back to my article of 8 March, you’ll see it concluded with a prophecy of a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition being the outcome of the forthcoming election. Comments from figures representing both those parties, and the current state of the opinion polls, strongly intimate that that prophecy is becoming ever more likely.

It will come as surprise to no-one that my preference in a balanced parliament would be for a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition – in fact a better preference still, would a “Progressive Coalition” of Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Greens and Respect (assuming the last two win seats on 6 May) – but that is of course, very unlikely.

Nick Clegg is right to play his cards as close to his chest as possible on this one – particularly as the hand has not yet been fully dealt. However, his comments on today’s Andrew Marr show are worth a bit of analysis. To say that it would be wrong to support a party that came third in terms of the popular vote (i.e. Labour, he assumes) appears fair and logical immediately. But be careful here Nick: whilst the polls make very rosy reading for you at the moment, remember second place in terms of vote share is not yet in the bag for your party. By the token of your argument, were the first and second places to be dealt to Conservative and Labour, respectively, then it should be Cameron and Brown (or their successors) that form the government.

I also believe if the country votes for a balanced parliament then that is just what it should get. The most recent polls actually point towards the Conservatives being the largest single party. This would mean then that the Liberal Democrats would have more sway if they teamed up with Labour rather than the Conservatives: 30% of a coalition with the former, as opposed to 28% with the latter. If I were Nick Clegg, I would feel a duty to the electorate, who had just charged me with the balance of power, to maximise that balance via a sphere of influence. Remember too, that the Conservatives have their, oft-forgotten, automatic buffer: the Unionists in Northern Ireland (including the DUP). So even if, on the face of it, they end up with less seats than Labour, adding a dozen or so Unionists to their tally of seats dilutes any Liberal Democrat power still further.

Whatever happens, the Liberal Democrats must use this opportunity to secure Proportional Representation for the very next General Election after this one and methinks that such an agreement on electoral reform is far more likely to be achieved with Labour rather Conservative – and it should be this consideration, not who comes first, second and third, that should be paramount to the Liberal Democrats’ decision as to with whom they form the next government. I hope to goodness they don't blow it, or compromise, for the sake of a few high-profile cabinet seats - or anything else for that matter...