The Election result shows there is clear majority public
support for Brexit, or certainly little to no appetite for disrupting or
attempting to reverse the decision taken a year ago.
Both the Conservative and Labour manifestos indicated their
commitment to honouring the result of last year’s referendum, albeit with some
differences in approach and what exactly Brexit will entail. Moreover, neither party
were offering a 2nd referendum on the matter: either on a final deal
or an option for remaining.
Contrast the Liberal Democrats, SNP and Greens who have been
unequivocal in their opposition to Brexit: Both the LibDems and the Greens want
a 2nd referendum and the SNP want a 2nd independence referendum
for Scotland before the UK leaves the EU to gain Scotland the option of remaining.
Having now secured manifesto commitments to leaving the EU
in the two most powerful of UK’s political parties, UKIPs raison d’etre is
close to extinction. Now styling themselves as the “guard dog of Brexit”, their
remaining function is, indeed, to keep watch over the process, with the threat
of making a comeback if the government starts conceding too much over the next
2 years. Their electoral fortunes will remain inversely related to the extent to
which the UK extricates itself from the EU.
Looking at the result in the context of the above, one can
actually discern a uniform swing in last Thursday’s vote: away from those who
most vociferously campaigned on both sides of the Brexit argument, to those who
have the power and commitment to honour the outcome.
As I said, both Conservative and Labour, are committed, to
varying degrees of detail, to securing the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, and,
between them, polled 82.3% of the popular vote. (If you add in UKIP and the
DUP, you get 85%). If you want to factor in the turnout at this election, which
was 68.7%, you get a clear 58% of those eligible to vote, supporting a party
that had a manifesto commitment to honouring Brexit.
Now given the apparent consternation at last year’s
referendum result, and given there appeared to be no other option on the table
of “changing your mind” over Brexit, would now not have been the time to seize
this election as the most powerful opportunity to vote for dissent at the
outcome of last year’s result?
Yet those parties with the strongest dissenting voices saw a
fall in their share of the votes, both individually, and aggregately: the
LibDems actually had their worst share of the vote in a General Election ever;
the Green Party saw its vote halved since 2015; and Scotland saw a massive 13%
swing away from the SNP to the Conservatives.
Now you’d be forgiven for thinking otherwise, with the
post-polls media coverage, but this election saw the Conservatives poll their
largest share of the vote since the Conservative landslide of 1983. Their vote
share increased by 5.5% since 2015, and Labour’s increased by nearly 10%. Both
parties were committed to remaining in the EU in their 2015 manifestos, both committed
to have Britain leave it in 2017. There’s a correlation that cannot be ignored.
We have had four national votes: one every year since 2014, in
which the subject of Britain’s membership of the EU has been either a major, or
the only, issue. Under any analysis, the only reasonable and objective conclusion
from the results, is that there is a clear mandate for Brexit in principle. The
details of what “Brexit” will mean are to be negotiated during the 2 year
window period provided for by Article 50 – that’s what it’s there for. Let’s
get on with it.
